Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2058 American Flight history →	PHL 17:44	SAT 20:45	29%	11%	0.8%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	7h 09m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30DL 5740 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Boston	BOS 09:00 → SAT 12:24DL 816	7h 24m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676	5h 28m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	8h 13m	99%	83%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → IAH 08:35UA 584	1h 04m Houston	IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa	5h 46m	92%	81%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490	7h 29m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458	7h 05m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	8h 05m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222	6h 02m	75%	51%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 20:15 → SAT 22:22DL 1365	5h 54m	73%	50%
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546	5h 41m	52%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON