Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4717 PHL 14:09 → SDF 16:23 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4335 PHL 19:30 → SDF 21:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4717 Republic	PHL 14:09	SDF 16:23	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 4335 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 19:30	SDF 21:45	20%	6%	1.0%	63%
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:31	SDF 11:47	19%	4%	3.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON