Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2092 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2092 PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AS 443 PHL 18:41 → SEA 21:31 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2092 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:05	SEA 10:01	15%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 2870 American Flight history →	PHL 08:16	SEA 11:14	18%	5%	0.9%	83%
AS 370 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 07:03	SEA 09:51	22%	3%	0.9%	65%
AA 1037 American	PHL 17:45	SEA 20:37	39%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1823 American	PHL 19:46	SEA 22:38	41%	10%	1.1%	no record
AS 443 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 18:41	SEA 21:31	41%	9%	1.0%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 19m	98%	86%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	8h 38m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 24m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON