Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 614 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 614 PHL 09:25 → SJU 13:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4462 PHL 20:03 → SJU 23:58 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 614 American	PHL 09:25	SJU 13:19	22%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 1016 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:22	SJU 10:20	24%	9%	1.5%	67%
B6 1047 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 12:38	SJU 16:30	29%	10%	0.9%	73%
F9 1166 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:55	SJU 17:55	40%	12%	1.3%	43%
F9 4462 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:03	SJU 23:58	43%	16%	1.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON