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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 6h 29m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 7h 17m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 7h 28m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 3h 40m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 12m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 6h 44m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 5h 11m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306 3h 27m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 7h 34m 95% 66%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 3h 22m Charlotte CLT 19:07 → SRQ 21:02AA 2604 7h 13m 97% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON