Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3341 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3341 PHL 06:20 → STL 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2571 PHL 15:26 → STL 17:01 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3341 Southwest	PHL 06:20	STL 07:46	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1739 American Flight history →	PHL 08:51	STL 10:23	12%	3%	0.8%	95%
WN 2188 Southwest	PHL 11:15	STL 12:41	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4599 Republic	PHL 20:54	STL 22:39	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3893 Southwest	PHL 14:13	STL 15:43	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2571 American Flight history →	PHL 15:26	STL 17:01	26%	8%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON