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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet 5h 37m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391 3h 44m Detroit DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424 6h 40m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 3h 08m Chicago ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor 6h 19m 96% 48%
UnitedDetails → PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308 2h 53m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 6h 37m 90% 35%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:23UA 2665 1h 03m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 4h 29m 52% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON