Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:28	XNA 12:31	15%	5%	1.1%	80%
AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:17	XNA 20:37	22%	10%	1.3%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 08:42 → XNA 09:37DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 22m	97%	84%
American Details →	PHL 06:43 → DFW 09:28AA 1751	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:58AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 15m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 16:05 → XNA 17:29DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 53m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → XNA 16:48DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	5h 46m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	94%	75%
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	8h 25m	99%	75%
American Details →	PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 11:41 → XNA 13:34AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 52m	97%	74%
American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:20 → XNA 22:46AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	8h 46m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 17:45 → DFW 20:22AA 2533	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:20 → XNA 22:46AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	6h 01m	58%	44%
American Details →	PHL 15:45 → ORD 17:29AA 470	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → XNA 20:54AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	71%	38%
American Details →	PHL 19:54 → ORD 21:34AA 490	58m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → XNA 00:27 +1AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	5h 33m	51%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON