Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4948 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 4948 PHX 08:40 → ABQ 11:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3370 PHX 22:45 → ABQ 01:06 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4948 Southwest	PHX 08:40	ABQ 11:01	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	PHX 08:55	ABQ 11:25	13%	5%	0.8%	92%
MQ 3879 Envoy	PHX 12:15	ABQ 14:37	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4527 Southwest	PHX 11:30	ABQ 13:51	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4133 Envoy	PHX 16:24	ABQ 18:46	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 5029 Southwest	PHX 12:45	ABQ 15:05	30%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 920 Southwest	PHX 13:56	ABQ 16:15	32%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 3239 American	PHX 21:56	ABQ 00:23	35%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 198 Southwest	PHX 21:23	ABQ 23:42	39%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3294 Southwest	PHX 17:55	ABQ 20:16	41%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 5028 Southwest	PHX 22:23	ABQ 00:42	43%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 3370 Southwest	PHX 22:45	ABQ 01:06	44%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON