tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:04, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 95 Alaska PHX 18:14 ANC 23:00 26% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → PHX 10:57 → PDX 13:50AS 511 3h 59m Portland PDX 17:49 → ANC 20:37AS 1455 10h 40m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 3h 13m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 12h 08m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 12h 18m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 3h 35m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 10h 26m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419 2h 05m Seattle SEA 17:30 → ANC 20:14DL 2367 8h 59m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:08 → ANC 19:09AA 399 12h 39m 99% 70%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 11:32 → SEA 14:26AS 637 2h 25m Seattle SEA 16:51 → ANC 19:30AS 85 8h 58m 96% 70%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:46 → SEA 15:46AS 609 3h 21m Seattle SEA 19:07 → ANC 21:41AS 582 9h 55m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662 1h 00m Portland PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:25 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon 7h 37m 73% 56%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:16 → ORD 16:06AA 332 57m Chicago ORD 17:03 → ANC 21:09AA 375 11h 53m 57% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON