Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3349 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3349 PHX 05:10 → AUS 09:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 691 PHX 19:44 → AUS 23:57 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3349 Southwest	PHX 05:10	AUS 09:33	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3652 Southwest	PHX 06:10	AUS 10:34	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1951 Southwest	PHX 08:50	AUS 13:12	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	PHX 09:25	AUS 14:02	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1059 American	PHX 08:54	AUS 13:38	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 334 Southwest	PHX 14:18	AUS 18:43	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3889 Southwest	PHX 17:15	AUS 21:39	34%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 2235 Southwest	PHX 16:00	AUS 20:23	37%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 2892 American Flight history →	PHX 15:25	AUS 19:43	38%	12%	0.7%	70%
WN 3142 Southwest	PHX 20:45	AUS 01:08	41%	13%	0.7%	no record
AA 691 American Flight history →	PHX 19:44	AUS 23:57	44%	12%	1.1%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON