Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3777 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3777 PHX 07:09 → BNA 12:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3520 PHX 18:15 → BNA 23:35 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3777 Southwest	PHX 07:09	BNA 12:29	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3378 Southwest	PHX 09:10	BNA 14:31	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3358 Southwest	PHX 11:45	BNA 17:06	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 1370 American Flight history →	PHX 08:44	BNA 14:08	24%	6%	0.7%	67%
WN 3750 Southwest	PHX 13:55	BNA 19:17	32%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3520 Southwest	PHX 18:15	BNA 23:35	34%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON