Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1111 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1111 PHX 08:55 → BOI 12:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1855 PHX 15:23 → BOI 18:38 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1111 Southwest	PHX 08:55	BOI 12:11	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4080 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:18	BOI 13:41	15%	4%	0.7%	71%
AA 4952 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:52	BOI 22:11	18%	8%	0.8%	89%
OO 4919 SkyWest	PHX 13:37	BOI 16:56	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 3320 SkyWest	PHX 16:30	BOI 19:49	20%	7%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3856 Envoy	PHX 20:42	BOI 00:00	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
WN 3208 Southwest	PHX 22:50	BOI 02:03	29%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 1855 Southwest	PHX 15:23	BOI 18:38	30%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON