Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 9875 at 10:02 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 9875 PHX 10:02 → BOS 17:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 567 PHX 15:15 → BOS 23:14 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 9875 Delta	PHX 10:02	BOS 17:53	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1697 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:32	BOS 06:30	19%	6%	1.0%	86%
AA 1245 American	PHX 08:44	BOS 16:42	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2701 American Flight history →	PHX 21:45	BOS 05:45	23%	6%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
B6 1302 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 00:00	BOS 07:44	24%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 2778 American Flight history →	PHX 12:46	BOS 20:43	35%	10%	0.7%	74%
AA 567 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	BOS 23:14	35%	9%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 09m	96%	77%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	6h 44m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 05m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON