Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3593 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 3593 PHX 07:57 → BUR 09:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4905 PHX 20:30 → BUR 22:00 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3593 Southwest	PHX 07:57	BUR 09:29	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4227 Envoy	PHX 07:52	BUR 09:23	14%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 1728 Southwest	PHX 09:46	BUR 11:15	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1730 Southwest	PHX 12:36	BUR 14:05	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	PHX 14:56	BUR 16:34	26%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 207 Southwest	PHX 14:40	BUR 16:09	30%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 6185 SkyWest	PHX 16:59	BUR 18:37	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 512 Southwest	PHX 15:45	BUR 17:14	36%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 399 Southwest	PHX 18:45	BUR 20:15	43%	13%	1.0%	no record
WN 4905 Southwest	PHX 20:30	BUR 22:00	43%	14%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON