tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 00m Denver DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741 6h 49m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 17m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 5h 25m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 2h 12m Seattle SEA 12:17 → BZN 15:14DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 7h 15m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 18m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:57 → SFO 09:11UA 2449 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 7h 24m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 88% 67%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 2h 41m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 6h 40m 100% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 57m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 5h 55m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON