tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 452 American PHX 15:57 CLE 23:05 31% 8% 0.6% no record
WN 1211 Southwest PHX 12:50 CLE 19:45 33% 7% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 48m Minneapolis MSP 15:38 → CLE 18:36DL 1118 8h 51m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 43m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 9h 20m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:02 → IAD 21:16UA 1017 1h 46m Dulles IAD 23:02 → CLE 00:32 +1UA 8131 7h 30m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 5h 36m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392 8h 56m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 6h 35m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476 6h 45m 96% 72%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 2h 48m Seattle SEA 13:17 → CLE 20:40AS 263 10h 20m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → PHX 00:00 → BOS 07:58B6 1302 47m Boston BOS 08:45 → CLE 10:55B6 2041 7h 55m 63% 55%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 56m Denver DEN 17:40 → CLE 22:41UA 1790 6h 07m 64% 38%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:10 → ORD 16:52UA 1748 1h 01m Chicago ORD 17:53 → CLE 20:21UA 2652 6h 11m 65% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON