Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3009 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3009 PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1591 PHX 14:00 → CLT 21:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3009 American Flight history →	PHX 05:00	CLT 12:09	11%	4%	1.3%	95%
AA 871 American	PHX 06:13	CLT 13:22	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2821 American Flight history →	PHX 23:43	CLT 06:52	18%	5%	1.0%	91%
AA 1688 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	CLT 15:48	18%	4%	0.9%	89%
AA 665 American	PHX 10:00	CLT 17:15	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2714 American	PHX 22:51	CLT 06:03	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1617 American	PHX 12:17	CLT 19:32	29%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1591 American	PHX 14:00	CLT 21:09	30%	7%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	56m Denver	DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231	6h 02m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 02m	86%	66%
American Details →	PHX 08:44 → BNA 14:08AA 1370	59m Nashville	BNA 15:07 → CLT 17:38AA 1136	5h 54m	75%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON