tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2990 American Flight history → PHX 08:56 CVG 16:00 23% 5% 0.6% 88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 57m Minneapolis MSP 12:47 → CVG 15:39DL 1776 5h 54m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 03m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 8h 23m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 1h 12m Detroit DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor 6h 16m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 5h 27m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 6h 26m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 8h 24m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 42m Houston IAH 12:34 → CVG 16:00UA 2850 6h 50m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHX 20:18 → LAX 21:50DL 4077 · flown by SkyWest 55m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → CVG 05:59 +1DL 458 6h 41m 70% 54%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 56m Denver DEN 17:40 → CVG 22:28UA 1615 5h 54m 64% 38%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 1h 21m Chicago ORD 19:29 → CVG 22:00AA 3690 · flown by Envoy 6h 45m 71% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON