Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1509 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1509 PHX 06:00 → DAL 10:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3365 PHX 18:35 → DAL 23:06 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1509 Southwest	PHX 06:00	DAL 10:26	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 4755 Southwest	PHX 05:10	DAL 09:40	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 3375 Southwest	PHX 07:20	DAL 11:46	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2055 Southwest	PHX 09:21	DAL 13:48	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1882 Southwest	PHX 12:46	DAL 17:16	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 49 Southwest	PHX 13:33	DAL 18:00	29%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3376 Southwest	PHX 15:33	DAL 20:00	32%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 3379 Southwest	PHX 17:45	DAL 22:16	34%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 3365 Southwest	PHX 18:35	DAL 23:06	35%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON