tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:14, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3191 American Flight history → PHX 08:30 DCA 15:59 20% 6% 0.8% 85%
AA 1787 American Flight history → PHX 13:02 DCA 20:32 37% 11% 0.9% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 2h 28m Chicago ORD 08:53 → DCA 11:59AA 523 8h 09m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 24m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:44 → IND 15:13AA 2954 1h 52m Indianapolis IND 17:05 → DCA 19:07AA 4452 · flown by Republic 7h 23m 97% 77%
JetBlueDetails → PHX 00:00 → BOS 07:58B6 1302 1h 32m Boston BOS 09:30 → DCA 11:28B6 2355 8h 28m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 08m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → PHX 09:14 → CMH 16:02AA 2900 3h 12m Columbus CMH 19:14 → DCA 20:55AA 4398 · flown by Republic 8h 41m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 9h 21m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:44 → BNA 14:08AA 1370 57m Nashville BNA 15:05 → DCA 18:01AA 4374 · flown by Republic 6h 17m 74% 60%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:16 → ORD 16:06AA 332 1h 04m Chicago ORD 17:10 → DCA 20:26AA 489 7h 10m 69% 34%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:12 → ORD 18:41UA 1842 1h 04m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 6h 42m 50% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON