Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 27 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3383 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 3383 PHX 06:06 → DEN 08:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2142 PHX 16:48 → DEN 19:46 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3383 Southwest	PHX 06:06	DEN 08:59	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 337 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DEN 08:52	6%	3%	1.0%	93%
WN 3384 Southwest	PHX 07:06	DEN 10:04	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1408 Southwest	PHX 09:01	DEN 11:54	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3386 Southwest	PHX 08:06	DEN 10:59	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1376 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:40	DEN 09:39	12%	5%	1.0%	88%
UA 1599 United	PHX 07:27	DEN 10:21	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 597 United Flight history →	PHX 09:08	DEN 12:00	14%	5%	0.7%	86%
WN 3344 Southwest	PHX 10:46	DEN 13:43	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 4768 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:40	DEN 11:38	19%	6%	0.8%	85%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DEN 11:25	20%	5%	0.7%	64%
WN 3387 Southwest	PHX 12:01	DEN 14:54	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1745 United Flight history →	PHX 18:59	DEN 21:54	30%	11%	0.8%	77%
WN 1797 Southwest	PHX 21:38	DEN 00:31	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 709 United Flight history →	PHX 13:34	DEN 16:44	33%	12%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
AA 1638 American Flight history →	PHX 19:16	DEN 22:19	33%	10%	0.9%	70%
F9 1820 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 20:48	DEN 23:52	35%	10%	1.1%	75%worse than usual
WN 1463 Southwest	PHX 22:45	DEN 01:37	36%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 280 United	PHX 15:29	DEN 18:39	36%	14%	0.9%	no record
UA 624 United Flight history →	PHX 16:25	DEN 19:21	36%	13%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
WN 472 Southwest	PHX 13:28	DEN 16:21	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1615 United Flight history →	PHX 13:31	DEN 16:27	39%	13%	0.9%	75%worse than usual
WN 898 Southwest	PHX 17:11	DEN 20:03	41%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 1030 Southwest	PHX 15:05	DEN 18:01	45%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 1763 Southwest	PHX 16:00	DEN 18:52	46%	11%	0.7%	no record
OO 4944 SkyWest	PHX 15:18	DEN 18:13	46%	13%	0.9%	no record
F9 2142 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:48	DEN 19:46	47%	13%	0.9%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON