Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 261 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 261 PHX 08:10 → ELP 10:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 519 PHX 22:50 → ELP 01:14 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 261 Southwest	PHX 08:10	ELP 10:34	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 4907 SkyWest	PHX 09:05	ELP 11:32	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	PHX 12:59	ELP 15:23	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 6231 SkyWest	PHX 21:47	ELP 00:14	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2962 Southwest	PHX 13:15	ELP 15:39	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3191 Southwest	PHX 17:28	ELP 19:52	42%	12%	0.6%	no record
AA 2875 American	PHX 16:10	ELP 18:36	42%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 519 Southwest	PHX 22:50	ELP 01:14	47%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON