tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 4097 Envoy PHX 10:33 EUG 13:27 13% 4% 0.7% no record
MQ 3854 Envoy PHX 20:25 EUG 23:06 18% 6% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 14:56 → EUG 16:01DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 3h 33m Seattle SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 7h 57m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 6h 57m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 1h 25m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 86% 71%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662 1h 10m Portland PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon 4h 40m 81% 65%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 09:03 → SEA 11:57AS 603 3h 53m Seattle SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon 7h 57m 96% 65%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303 7h 47m 100% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 17:48 → PDX 20:30AS 662 1h 00m Portland PDX 21:30 → EUG 22:30AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest 4h 42m 73% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON