Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1222 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1222 PHX 06:27 → EWR 14:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1967 PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1222 United Flight history →	PHX 06:27	EWR 14:04	10%	3%	1.3%	100%worse than usual
UA 2078 United Flight history →	PHX 00:02	EWR 07:44	17%	4%	1.0%	86%
UA 1194 United	PHX 22:32	EWR 06:24	26%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 2156 American Flight history →	PHX 22:14	EWR 06:00	29%	9%	1.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 1327 American	PHX 08:28	EWR 16:09	32%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 2188 United	PHX 10:02	EWR 17:43	34%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 2291 United	PHX 13:43	EWR 21:42	37%	12%	1.0%	no record
UA 2796 United	PHX 11:50	EWR 19:31	37%	17%	0.8%	no record
AA 1967 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	EWR 23:59	38%	11%	1.3%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	6h 54m	96%	70%
United Details →	PHX 09:11 → ORD 14:40UA 1124	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 16:20 → EWR 19:06UA 3810	6h 55m	97%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON