tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 550 American Flight history → PHX 08:30 FLL 16:05 27% 8% 1.2% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 06m Denver DEN 09:58 → FLL 16:08UA 1214 7h 08m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 59m Denver DEN 13:59 → FLL 20:07UA 1384 7h 59m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 3h 08m Detroit DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037 10h 00m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 4h 00m Houston IAH 14:52 → FLL 18:41UA 1424 9h 31m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHX 00:02 → EWR 07:57UA 2078 3h 54m Newark EWR 11:51 → FLL 14:43UA 2759 11h 41m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 2h 55m Seattle SEA 13:00 → FLL 21:52DL 338 11h 53m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546 1h 31m New York JFK 15:30 → FLL 18:54DL 1419 9h 54m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 6h 56m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest 47m Los Angeles LAX 08:19 → FLL 16:26DL 573 7h 26m 69% 53%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 1h 01m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49UA 1374 7h 15m 69% 45%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:16 → ORD 16:06AA 332 1h 01m Chicago ORD 17:07 → FLL 21:26AA 2881 8h 10m 63% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON