tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 4966 SkyWest PHX 08:55 FSD 13:43 21% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 6429 SkyWest PHX 18:57 FSD 23:45 22% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:55 → FSD 12:35UA 4759 · flown by SkyWest 4h 35m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:10 → FSD 17:27AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 7h 57m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06DL 1694 7h 15m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest 5h 15m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 18:16 → FSD 19:56DL 2615 7h 42m 89% 68%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:12 → ORD 18:41UA 1842 2h 49m Chicago ORD 21:30 → FSD 23:31UA 1842 8h 19m 100% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:08AA 435 1h 29m Chicago ORD 22:37 → FSD 00:22 +1AA 4958 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 69% 37%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615 1h 01m Denver DEN 17:28 → FSD 20:08UA 645 4h 37m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON