Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1681 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1681 PHX 07:45 → GEG 10:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2876 PHX 20:31 → GEG 23:07 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1681 Southwest	PHX 07:45	GEG 10:31	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 540 American Flight history →	PHX 10:22	GEG 13:22	18%	7%	0.7%	75%
WN 2080 Southwest	PHX 21:00	GEG 23:44	34%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 2876 American Flight history →	PHX 20:31	GEG 23:07	34%	11%	0.8%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON