Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3395 PHX 09:35 → HNL 13:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 693 PHX 10:15 → HNL 14:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3395 Southwest	PHX 09:35	HNL 13:13	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 835 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 08:44	HNL 12:23	20%	6%	0.9%	80%
AA 693 American Flight history →	PHX 10:15	HNL 14:09	22%	7%	0.6%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 18m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:39 → LAX 12:10DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	9h 04m	96%	73%
United Details →	PHX 06:57 → SFO 09:12UA 2449	1h 33m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	9h 23m	89%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON