Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2067 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 2067 PHX 05:05 → HOU 09:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4436 PHX 20:20 → HOU 01:00 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2067 Southwest	PHX 05:05	HOU 09:43	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 3397 Southwest	PHX 07:25	HOU 12:04	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1051 Southwest	PHX 09:55	HOU 14:34	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3396 Southwest	PHX 13:50	HOU 18:29	34%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3190 Southwest	PHX 15:12	HOU 19:52	38%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4436 Southwest	PHX 20:20	HOU 01:00	43%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON