Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1873 United Flight history →	PHX 08:50	IAD 16:17	14%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1017 United Flight history →	PHX 14:02	IAD 21:16	23%	6%	0.8%	91%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 28m Denver	DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:54UA 2087	6h 54m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	8h 32m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	8h 19m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	7h 41m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541	11h 49m	100%	76%
United Details →	PHX 00:02 → EWR 07:57UA 2078	2h 00m Newark	EWR 09:57 → IAD 11:15UA 1618	8h 13m	94%	75%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 31m Houston	IAH 14:23 → IAD 18:49UA 688	9h 39m	100%	75%
United Details →	PHX 10:43 → SFO 12:51UA 2619	3h 43m San Francisco	SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453	11h 12m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	50m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	72%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON