Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1318 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1318 PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1704 PHX 11:57 → IAH 16:41 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1318 United Flight history →	PHX 06:10	IAH 10:52	8%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 1481 United	PHX 10:28	IAH 15:27	16%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1397 United	PHX 08:30	IAH 13:09	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2357 American Flight history →	PHX 08:55	IAH 13:48	22%	8%	0.7%	67%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	PHX 12:20	IAH 17:03	22%	8%	0.7%	80%
MQ 3851 Envoy	PHX 19:21	IAH 00:08	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4153 Envoy	PHX 12:30	IAH 17:16	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1885 United Flight history →	PHX 18:54	IAH 23:49	24%	10%	0.9%	80%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	PHX 16:13	IAH 20:52	27%	9%	0.7%	79%
F9 1704 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 11:57	IAH 16:41	30%	10%	0.8%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON