Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6226 PHX 08:30 → ICT 13:07 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest MQ 3570 PHX 19:30 → ICT 23:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6226 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:30	ICT 13:07	21%	6%	0.8%	77%
WN 2151 Southwest	PHX 11:20	ICT 15:45	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3570 Envoy	PHX 19:30	ICT 23:57	29%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON