Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3400 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3400 PHX 09:30 → IND 15:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3296 PHX 18:45 → IND 01:14 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3400 Southwest	PHX 09:30	IND 15:58	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2954 American Flight history →	PHX 08:44	IND 15:13	21%	6%	0.6%	89%
WN 2666 Southwest	PHX 13:35	IND 20:03	36%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1255 American Flight history →	PHX 15:30	IND 22:01	39%	11%	0.6%	66%
WN 3296 Southwest	PHX 18:45	IND 01:14	42%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON