Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	2h 14m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	8h 27m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	7h 09m	94%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 13m Denver	DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451	6h 39m	96%	80%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	1h 18m Houston	IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa	6h 27m	95%	78%
United Details →	PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873	1h 36m Dulles	IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08UA 293	8h 18m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → JAX 15:05DL 2990	6h 20m	95%	75%
American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 15:36 → JAX 17:02AA 2218	9h 02m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → JAX 17:56DL 2440	7h 41m	94%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	51m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	5h 59m	69%	49%
American Details →	PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:09 → JAX 22:38AA 3173	7h 23m	55%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON