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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 546 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 546 PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 136 PHX 13:30 → JFK 21:17 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 546 Delta Flight history → PHX 06:00 JFK 13:59 8% 3% 1.1% 93%
AA 636 American Flight history → PHX 07:00 JFK 14:59 17% 5% 1.3% 89%
DL 548 Delta Flight history → PHX 22:35 JFK 06:27 19% 6% 1.6% 89%
DL 791 Delta Flight history → PHX 11:40 JFK 20:01 26% 7% 0.9% 80%
AA 1587 American Flight history → PHX 21:50 JFK 05:47 26% 7% 1.6% 87%worse than usual
AA 2339 American Flight history → PHX 10:02 JFK 17:45 30% 8% 0.9% 87%worse than usual
AA 832 American Flight history → PHX 15:51 JFK 23:58 37% 10% 1.0% 76%worse than usual
AA 475 American PHX 13:04 JFK 21:10 37% 12% 1.0% no record
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history → PHX 13:30 JFK 21:17 41% 14% 1.2% 76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:08 → ORD 10:49AA 3062 47m Chicago ORD 11:36 → JFK 14:44AA 3225 6h 36m 76% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON