Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1887 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 1887 PHX 05:50 → LAX 07:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3204 PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1887 Southwest	PHX 05:50	LAX 07:18	4%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 4057 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:32	7%	4%	0.8%	97%
OO 5939 SkyWest	PHX 06:31	LAX 08:04	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:39	LAX 12:10	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
OO 5969 SkyWest	PHX 18:49	LAX 20:36	15%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	LAX 13:46	16%	5%	0.6%	87%
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:02	LAX 17:34	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 2318 United	PHX 07:57	LAX 09:27	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
OO 6032 SkyWest	PHX 10:28	LAX 12:01	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5968 SkyWest	PHX 16:00	LAX 17:33	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3410 Southwest	PHX 11:15	LAX 12:43	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	PHX 07:12	LAX 08:42	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2027 American	PHX 10:44	LAX 12:14	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1892 American Flight history →	PHX 08:00	LAX 09:34	22%	7%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:18	LAX 21:50	24%	7%	0.7%	84%
AA 1362 American Flight history →	PHX 14:03	LAX 15:33	30%	8%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
F9 2133 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:08	LAX 17:44	31%	12%	1.0%	75%
WN 2864 Southwest	PHX 13:15	LAX 14:43	35%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1331 American Flight history →	PHX 17:05	LAX 18:38	41%	10%	0.6%	65%
WN 427 Southwest	PHX 17:22	LAX 18:50	43%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 250 Southwest	PHX 22:52	LAX 00:20	46%	13%	0.8%	no record
WN 426 Southwest	PHX 22:16	LAX 23:50	46%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 3204 American Flight history →	PHX 20:38	LAX 22:07	48%	11%	0.7%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON