Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via LAX, leaving 10:39, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 697 American Flight history →	PHX 11:20	LIH 15:22	28%	6%	0.6%	84%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 10:39 → LAX 12:10DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	10h 02m	99%	78%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 08m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	12h 37m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	12h 39m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:23AS 835	2h 56m Honolulu	HNL 15:19 → LIH 16:13AS 1113	10h 29m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	PHX 11:31 → SEA 14:24AS 637	3h 49m Seattle	SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237	12h 54m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	PHX 06:07 → SEA 09:05AS 605	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 33m	97%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:23AS 835	46m Honolulu	HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:03AS 1083	8h 19m	64%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON