tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4329 at 15:50, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4329 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 15:50 LIT 20:47 26% 6% 0.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027 7h 27m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 56m Salt Lake City SLC 13:17 → LIT 17:17DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest 5h 32m 87% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:36 → LIT 12:59AA 3898 · flown by Envoy 5h 49m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:52 → LIT 17:19AA 4309 · flown by Envoy 7h 49m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083 8h 26m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 1h 17m Houston IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa 5h 41m 87% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → LIT 18:30DL 2061 9h 15m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 17:02 → LIT 18:13AA 5672 · flown by PSA 7h 43m 90% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 52m Atlanta ATL 17:52 → LIT 18:30DL 2061 6h 16m 71% 53%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 59m Denver DEN 17:43 → LIT 20:52UA 1470 5h 18m 66% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON