Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4892 at 19:00, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4892 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:00	MAF 22:48	31%	11%	1.0%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 43m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa	8h 05m	100%	83%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 13m Denver	DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	96%	78%
American Details →	PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy	7h 23m	99%	76%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:27 → MAF 19:50AA 4279 · flown by Envoy	7h 19m	96%	69%
United Details →	PHX 16:13 → IAH 20:52UA 2198	1h 12m Houston	IAH 22:04 → MAF 23:44UA 6276 · flown by Mesa	5h 31m	80%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON