Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3150 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3150 PHX 05:30 → MCI 10:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4949 PHX 21:19 → MCI 01:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3150 Southwest	PHX 05:30	MCI 10:11	4%	1%	1.4%	no record
WN 3418 Southwest	PHX 07:25	MCI 12:06	7%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 1622 American Flight history →	PHX 08:42	MCI 13:28	15%	4%	1.9%	91%
WN 2959 Southwest	PHX 14:25	MCI 19:07	29%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 623 American Flight history →	PHX 16:07	MCI 20:52	33%	10%	0.8%	69%
WN 3058 Southwest	PHX 19:43	MCI 00:22	33%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 4949 Southwest	PHX 21:19	MCI 01:59	33%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON