Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1729 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1729 PHX 05:00 → MDW 10:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4225 PHX 18:50 → MDW 00:14 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1729 Southwest	PHX 05:00	MDW 10:30	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 3429 Southwest	PHX 00:35	MDW 06:02	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1343 Southwest	PHX 07:10	MDW 12:37	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3350 Southwest	PHX 09:45	MDW 15:12	19%	4%	3.4%	no record
WN 1192 Southwest	PHX 12:55	MDW 18:21	34%	9%	2.7%	no record
WN 297 Southwest	PHX 16:06	MDW 21:31	36%	10%	1.3%	no record
WN 4225 Southwest	PHX 18:50	MDW 00:14	37%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON