tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3853 Envoy PHX 19:04 MEM 00:18 27% 6% 1.0% no record
WN 1626 Southwest PHX 13:05 MEM 18:11 31% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 9h 07m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 27m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 08m Denver DEN 11:00 → MEM 14:29UA 2789 6h 29m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:35 → MEM 14:16AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 7h 06m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 6h 29m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 1h 43m Chicago ORD 08:08 → MEM 09:57AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 7h 07m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515 5h 55m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 22m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 8h 06m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688 48m Charlotte CLT 16:36 → MEM 17:32AA 1786 7h 02m 63% 43%
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:08AA 435 1h 22m Chicago ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy 6h 50m 65% 39%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 46m Denver DEN 17:30 → MEM 20:56UA 2130 5h 22m 35% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON