Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3171 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3171 PHX 07:00 → MKE 12:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4780 PHX 13:55 → MKE 19:18 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3171 Southwest	PHX 07:00	MKE 12:23	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1646 American	PHX 09:52	MKE 15:19	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 1341 Southwest	PHX 19:05	MKE 00:28	32%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 4780 Southwest	PHX 13:55	MKE 19:18	32%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON