Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1670 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1670 American Flight history →	PHX 08:25	MSN 13:49	19%	5%	0.8%	89%
AA 1835 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	MSN 21:33	44%	12%	0.8%	74%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 08m Denver	DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10UA 2368	6h 10m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	8h 06m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 17:03 → MSN 18:15DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor	6h 33m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	7h 09m	95%	72%
American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 14:40 → MSN 15:58AA 2880	8h 58m	99%	69%
American Details →	PHX 05:08 → ORD 10:49AA 3062	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 14:02 → MSN 15:15AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	8h 07m	94%	66%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	7h 23m	86%	64%
United Details →	PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → MSN 15:21UA 1595	6h 31m	96%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 13:12 → ORD 18:41UA 1842	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 19:46 → MSN 20:46UA 630	5h 34m	51%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON