tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3819 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3819 Southwest PHX 08:25 MSY 13:32 15% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 3382 Southwest PHX 19:20 MSY 00:29 40% 12% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 58m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 5h 39m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:50 → ORD 06:25AA 1148 2h 16m Chicago ORD 08:41 → MSY 11:05AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 8h 15m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 54m Dulles IAD 18:11 → MSY 20:06UA 251 9h 16m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 48m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100 5h 47m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 6h 40m 92% 75%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 03m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 04m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:25DL 918 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MSY 14:20DL 3157 6h 35m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 10:20 → MSY 16:10DL 2096 8h 10m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 47m Atlanta ATL 17:47 → MSY 18:26DL 678 6h 12m 63% 43%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:34 → DEN 16:44UA 709 1h 01m Denver DEN 17:45 → MSY 21:34UA 1541 6h 00m 69% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON