tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 645 American Flight history → PHX 11:03 OGG 14:32 22% 8% 0.7% 87%
WN 3166 Southwest PHX 09:35 OGG 13:03 25% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:43 → SFO 12:52UA 2619 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 34m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374 2h 29m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 11h 37m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 08m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest 58m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 8h 07m 91% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 08:44 → HNL 12:23AS 835 3h 42m Honolulu HNL 16:05 → OGG 16:58AS 1436 11h 14m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 10:56 → PDX 13:48AS 511 3h 57m Portland PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353 12h 44m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:45 → SEA 15:44AS 609 3h 15m Seattle SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202 12h 22m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:38 → SLC 08:21DL 1535 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 30m 98% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON