Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1724 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1724 PHX 07:50 → OKC 12:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3442 PHX 19:45 → OKC 00:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1724 Southwest	PHX 07:50	OKC 12:10	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 6253 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:43	OKC 13:03	15%	6%	0.7%	89%
OO 5002 SkyWest	PHX 12:24	OKC 16:44	24%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 6320 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:56	OKC 23:15	25%	12%	0.9%	71%
OO 238 SkyWest	PHX 18:57	OKC 23:16	26%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 2765 Southwest	PHX 12:17	OKC 16:32	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3437 Southwest	PHX 16:45	OKC 21:04	33%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3442 Southwest	PHX 19:45	OKC 00:05	35%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON