Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1082 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1082 PHX 07:30 → OMA 12:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3465 PHX 20:20 → OMA 01:01 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1082 Southwest	PHX 07:30	OMA 12:12	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3244 Southwest	PHX 11:40	OMA 16:22	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3039 American	PHX 08:43	OMA 13:33	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 4893 SkyWest	PHX 12:58	OMA 17:46	22%	10%	0.6%	no record
OO 6213 SkyWest	PHX 19:32	OMA 00:20	28%	13%	1.6%	no record
WN 872 Southwest	PHX 16:08	OMA 20:50	34%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3465 Southwest	PHX 20:20	OMA 01:01	40%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON