Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2187 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 2187 PHX 07:41 → ONT 09:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1238 PHX 20:30 → ONT 21:43 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2187 Southwest	PHX 07:41	ONT 09:07	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3066 Southwest	PHX 11:00	ONT 12:24	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	ONT 12:06	20%	6%	0.7%	83%
WN 3068 Southwest	PHX 13:55	ONT 15:19	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1666 American Flight history →	PHX 16:54	ONT 18:20	38%	10%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
WN 3223 Southwest	PHX 22:47	ONT 00:11	44%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 4712 Southwest	PHX 22:16	ONT 23:37	45%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 1238 American Flight history →	PHX 20:30	ONT 21:43	50%	11%	0.8%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON